When it come to the world of modern technology, there’s a constant – sometimes brutal – war for customers. And while each section of the technology market is important, the beginning of the 2010s seems to be all about smartphones and tablets. That’s where iOS and Android enter the scene, battling for supremacy and forcing other competitors into the shadows. Some belive that there’s still plenty of room for multiple mobile operating systems – including not only Android and iOS, but RIM, Windows Phone 7, and more – to exist in peace. Others, however, believe that the war will be “winner takes all.”
One person predicting this all-in outcome is Fred Vogelstein of Wired, who says that once the market is saturated and there are no new tablet/smartphone users to obtain, the game will be far more about poaching than about development. And if there’s one dominant player at that point, the secondary OS would be hard-pressed to really gain a foothold on the market.
“Make no mistake: As is often the case in technology, only one platform will prevail,” says Vogelstein. But is that the case? Maybe we should answer a few questions first, like what we mean by “prevail.” Are we assuming that Windows is prevailing while Macintosh computers, with tens of millions of loyal users, is a failure? If we’re using “not dominant” as our rubric for success, then Vogelstein may be right. Even then, though, it’s not likely to be nearly so one-sided as the PC/Mac war.
There are two major reasons why users choose Windows over Macintosh: price and software. Google may be hitting the right price point in the smartphone and tablet war, but it’s not as if Apple is ignoring this major element of marketing; the company is expected to release a lower-price iPhone later this year. Meanwhile, more than two-thirds of all developers who design apps for one platform also design the same app for the other, so software is less of a concern.
It’s a sure bet that either Google’s Android or Apple’s iOS will come out on top, and current trends indicate that Google will hold smartphones while Apple holds tablets. That being said, the more open world of today’s technology is likely to make the race much closer and the margin of victory much smaller.
[via Google Watch and Wired]
